Week 5: The Fantasy Football Follow-Up

For those of you that checked out the F3 for Week 5, here’s how my picks came out…

Nailed It (Great call!):

– Kurt Warner (QB, Arizona): As predicted, Kurt went off… 26-of-38, 302 yards, and two TDs. Top 10 in quarterbacks in Week 5.

– Matt Hasselbeck (QB, Seattle): FYI, some “experts” had Seneca Wallace in their top-20 rankings for Week 5. I doubt that will happen again. Hasselbeck was 18-of-30 with 241 yards, and four, yes, four TDs. Money!

GOT TOUCHDOWNS?

– Glen Coffee (RB, San Francisco): Coffee had 12 rushes for 45 yards and a TD, four catches for 21 yards. Even in a blowout, he was still a solid play this week.

– Tim Hightower (RB, Arizona): Not a breakout week, but Timmy definitely helped his owners out in Week 5. Especially in PPR leagues, six rushes for 17 yards and a TD, with five catches for 30 yards is nice.

– T.J. Houshmandzadeh (WR, Seattle): He’s back! Five catches for 77 yards, two in the endzone. Keep an eye on Seattle going forward.

– Hines Ward (WR, Pittsburgh): Consistent “Hines Ward” performance. Notched 85 yards on seven catches. This time he picked up a TD, which makes this NAILED IT that much sweeter.

– Bills (D/ST, Buffalo): Ohhhh boy were they wrong! A lot of columnists predicted a high-scoring defensive anti-clinic. That didn’t happen.

– Browns (D/ST, Cleveland): Same as the Bills. Ugly game, but the D/ST’s pick were perfect.

Got Nailed (Terrible call!):

– David Garrard (QB, Jacksonville): Sorry, folks. Here’s to the worst-rated quarterback in Week 5, and I liked him. He did virtually nothing, aside from the two fumbles. My bad.

– Jerome Harrison (RB, Cleveland): Noone saw this coming. Sure, an eyebrow or two raised when Jamal Lewis was announced as active, but I would have never expected Harrison would be essentially de-activated as a result.

– Derrick Mason (WR, Baltimore): Doubled the second he stepped off the bus. No chance. My apologies.

– Dolphins (D/ST, Miami): I had it wrong. As bad as the Jets D/ST played, the Fins were neck and neck.

FROM DOLPHENSE TO LOLFENSE

– Steven Hauschka (K, Baltimore): No explanation, it just didn’t happen.

– Joe Nedney (K, San Francisco): Extremely disappointed. Don’t forget about Joe though.

Wash (Probably didn’t kill you…):

– Brent Celek (TE, Philadelphia): My TE picks weren’t stellar at all this week. Case in point, Brent. My “Wild-Vick formation big play” prediction didn’t pan out either. You could have done worse though…

– John Carlson (TE, Seattle): T.J. took over. Surprised he didn’t get a look while Hasselbeck was playing Madden in the endzone all day.

– Marcedes Lewis (TE, Jacksonville): The good part about Garrard’s JaMarcus Russell impression was that a completion or two belonged to Lewis. One of the brighter points, although not that bright.

BMW 1, MARCEDES 0

– Dan Carpenter (K, Miami): Not a huge day, but at least he nailed 4 XPs.

* (16-11-9, 0.569) after Week 5. Still over .500!

– Steve Smith (WR, Carolina): My hate was warranted. In most standard leagues, the original Steve Smith is averaging single digit fantasy points per week. Not what you’d expect, but I think you can expect it from now on.

– Marshawn Lunch and Fred Jackson (RBs, Buffalo): I’m calling this one a tie. Lynch was serviceable, Jackson was a ghost. I said the Bills would suffer from “subtraction by addition” upon Lynch’s return, and I stick by it. The Bills were a scarier team with Jackson getting all the touches.

– Cedric Benson (RB, Cincinnati): I was wrong, but can you blame me? Sure, he finished the 2008 season running hard. Sure he’s been dominant thus far in 2009. But, I can’t get over his “Cedric Benson”-ness, so its hard, but I’m coming around.

YOUR NFL LEADING RUSHER... CEDRIC BENSON. WAIT, WHAT?

* (4-1-1, 0.750) when it comes to spitting hate!

“Big Johnson”:

– Ok Chris, fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice shame on me. You’re done. If you think I’m falling for your crap this week, you’re wrong. Not against my Pats. The Big Johnson this week was Andre, who put up foolish numbers, but the interesting Johnson is Josh, the Buccaneers’ new QB. He could contend in the future weeks for the biggest Johnson. The more the merrier! (Wait, that’s a little weird…)

* (0-2 0.000) at nailing the Johnson’s.

Week 4’s Top Performers: Fluke or For Real

Quarterbacks:

No. 1) Peyton Manning – Indianapolis Colts

FOR REAL: More of the same. Obvious play. Do I need to say more? (Notice, I didn’t even change this one from last week. Lazy? Yes. True? Also yes.)

No. 2) Matt Schaub ­– Houston Texans

FOR REAL: This is a hard one, because all the factors are there. I like Schaub. He’s got a great RB in Slaton, a filthy WR in Andre Johnson, and an emerging TE in Owen Daniels. The options surrounding Schaub are top-notch. The problem is his fragility. When he’s healthy, he’s capable of top-10 numbers. In saying he’s FOR REAL, I’m relying on his continued health, but I think he ends up near, if not in, the top-10 after Week 17.

No. 3) Kyle Orton – Denver Broncos

FOR REAL: He is not Peyton Manning. He is not even Jay Cutler. But with Marshall, Royal, and Stokley surrounding him, Orton is definitely start-able. I have Orton resting in the Flex spot in one of my more competitive leagues. He’s not on the same level as other QBs of 5-0 teams, but the record is surely not in spite of Orton. His numbers probably won’t make your eyes bug out like some, but he’s FOR REAL.

THIS MAN IS THE QUARTERBACK OF A 5-0 TEAM... I'VE GOT NOTHING

Running Backs:

No. 1) Ahmad Bradshaw – New York Giants

FLUKE: Guys, this is a conditional FLUKE. What the heck happened to Brandon Jacobs in the offseason?! In 2008, he was running like Lendale White to a round of tequila shots at an Old Country Buffet. Bradshaw geeked the Raiders on Sunday for two scores and over a hundred yards rushing, with a 50+ yard reception to boot. It was nice, but he’s still just a “change-of-pace” back, which have proven to be fantasy teases (e.g. Leon Washington, Darren Sproles, Fred Jackson).

No. 2) Michael Turner – Atlanta Falcons

FOR REAL: Yes, the Burner is FOR REAL. But, it’s not for the reason you might think. Sure, he’s the only guy getting touches near the goal line (fantasy plus). He reached paydirt Sunday three times (fantasy money). Turner is FOR REAL, because he’s being conserved, not over-used. If you spread his carries out over the season, the result is consistent play in a good offense, not a burnout (fantasy gold). Start Turner every week.

No. 3) Cedric Benson ­– Cincinnati Bengals

FLUKE: I am stubborn. I refuse to believe that Benson is a dominant fantasy RB. I won’t do it. BUT, as a man of the people, if he plays well against the Texans, I promise to proclaim his FOR REAL-ness, but I’m not ready right now. It’s freaking Cedric Benson everyone! Come on!

Wide Receivers:

No. 1) Miles Austin – Dallas Cowboys

FLUKE: No. None of the receivers on the Cowboys impress me. You know why Austin had freakish, Madden-on-easy-difficulty-like numbers? I’ll tell you why! Because the Chiefs can’t tackle! Watch his big plays, and you’ll see something that would make any Pop Warner coach vomit. Oh yea, and he should have had four TDs, but he dropped two in the endzone. That’s the kind of thing that really bugs me.

BECAUSE POINTDEXTER AUSTIN WOULDN'T FIT ON THE BIRTH CERTIFICATE

No. 2) Roddy White – Atlanta Falcons

FOR REAL: More than a few fantasy teams had their names changed to “Ooochy-Roddy-Roddy-Ooochy-Bang-Bang” after Week 5. We’re talking bigtime numbers in a legit offense (eight catches, 210 yards, two TDs). While Roddy’s been quiet prior to Week 5, I think he lives up to his draft position in the coming weeks.

No. 3) Jeremy Maclin – Philadelphia Eagles

FLUKE: DeSean Jackson owners unite! Grab your pitchforks and lanterns! I’m kidding guys, Donovan’s back, and he looks great. Maclin isn’t the receiver you want on the Eagles, DeSean is. It seems to me that this was one of those fluky weeks where supporting cast outshines the stars, so don’t go dropping Jackson for Maclin. Maclin’s mega-week was a FLUKE.

Tight Ends:

No. 1) Kellen Winslow ­– Tampa Bay Buccaneers

FOR REAL: The Bucs are bad. There’s no hiding that. But, aside from Antonio Bryant, Winslow is the target in the passing game. With Leftwich out, and Johnson in, I think Winslow continues to receive looks as th No. 1 or No. 2 option from now on. I’m on board, but don’t expect multiple TDs each week.

No. 3) Owen Daniels – Houston Texans

– FOR REAL: Daniels is averaging 5+ catches for 50+ yards each week. That kind of consistency is hard to come by at the TE position, so if you’ve got him, start him, if you don’t maybe look to pick him up in a trade for a questionable RB (Willis McGahee, Jamal Lewis, Beanie Wells).

#3. Dallas Clark – Indianapolis Colts

FOR REAL: Don’t kid yourself, Clark is a WR. Like Witten, their roles is to catch passes and sometimes try to block. If you drafted him, you’re giddy through Week 5, if you didn’t, chances are your TE won’t be as good as Clark when you match up with his team. Definitely FOR REAL.

Defense / Special Teams:

No. 1) Seattle Seahawks

FLUKE: Nope. Two fumble recoveries and a TD on defense. They blanked Jacksonville. Look back a little bit further though… they went from -2 fantasy points to 29. They had a great week, and might have another one against Arizona in Week 6, but I will not hesitate to call the Seahawks a FLUKE.

No. 2) New York Giants

FOR REAL: They played the Raiders in Week 5. That’s enough to make and D/ST look FOR REAL, but they’ve looked that way all year.

BIG BLUE - DOIN' THANGS

No. 3) Cleveland Browns

FLUKE: The only reason I picked the Browns D/ST in Week 5 was because of their matchup with the Bills. Both offenses suck, which means the D/ST’s in turn look great. The Browns’ offense was slightly less terrible than the Bills’, so they got the edge in points. Dump the Browns for a team with a better matchup in Week 6.

Kickers:

No. 1) Lawrence Tynes – New York Giants

FOR REAL: Still the best. The perfect situation for a K to thrive is on a good offense, with a good defense, that moves the ball even against strong D’s. He’ll get you points no matter what.

No. 2) Olindo Mare – Seattle Seahawks

FLUKE: That was not what you can expect from the Seahawks each week. The Jags looked particularly lost, and Seattle rightfully ran up the score on them, giving Mare big numbers in the process.

No. 3) Rob Bironas ­– Tennessee Titans

FOR REAL: Last year, Bironas was a “stud” K if there ever was one. Now he’s putting up points for a very different reason, because noone else can. The Titans scored so much in 2008 that Bironas ranked amongst the top K’s solely because of his XPs. This year, he’s responsible for a lot of the Titan points in general.

* Check back on Friday for the Week 6 F3, where I’ll make my fantasy picks for the upcoming weekend. As always, any questions or comments can be posted here or emailed to briangrimsley@gmail.com.

The Week 5 F3: Fantasy Football Forecast

So you may, and should have, noticed that I stray from the most obvious of picks. There’s no benefit in me telling you to start A.P. each week; it’s self-serving (if I’m right) and most fantasy owners are above that low of a level of insight.

Turns out I did pretty well with my picks last week (8-5-5), and I hope only to improve. It makes me feel good, and it helps those fortunate enough to read the piece and find themselves persuaded into buying what I have to say. Here we go: predictions for a terrible week of matchups!

Quarterbacks:

–  Kurt Warner ­– Arizona Cardinals

A lot of folks have been left scratching their heads as to why Warner, seemingly all of a sudden, has fallen from his perch as an elite fantasy QB. He’s deserved the question marks his owner’s have placed around him, but I like him in Week 5. Don’t be fooled by the numbers Houston’s D/ST put up last week. The “ST” portion is great, the “D” really isn’t.

– David Garrard – Jacksonville Jaguars

Flying under the radar, Garrard has played well of late. This team is a shadow of the old Jacksonville squads, but as predicted by ME, Mike Sims-Walker is emerging as a stud, and the offense looks like it’s starting to click. Garrard has always been one of those bye-week fill-in quarterbacks, but if you have him, I say start him against the Seahawks in what should be a shoot-out.

– Matt Hasselbeck – Seattle Seahawks

I love tough guys. I give extra points to guys whose brothers are married to insanely hot, albeit annoying, chicks. Hasselbeck is definitely hurting from the rib injury, but I like him nonetheless this week, so long as he starts. Seattle vs. Jacksonville could have a lot of points on the board early, so I think he’s a safe play, but check his status on Sunday.

Running Backs:

– Glen Coffee – San Francisco 49ers

Don’t think that last week was a fluke. It wasn’t. I think you can expect another 100+ yard from scrimmage performance from Coffee.

THE BEST PART OF WAKING UP...

Frank Gore is out for a few more, at least, and I think Glen handles the job well until then. Oh yeah, and it might be wise for Mike Singletary to run often, because the Falcons’ offense is capable of big plays at any point in the game. I say Glen eats up the clock, and racks up some points this week.

– Tim Hightower – Arizona Cardinals

Without any props really being given to him, and cries for Beanie Wells beginning to emerge, Hightower has been respectable. If you’re in a PPR league, Hightower has been money. The offense, unlike last year, relies on Tim for the spark, and I see him doing damage this week to the Houston run D. Deploy with confidence.

– Jerome Harrison – Cleveland Browns

{Insert Jamal Lewis murder joke here}. No worries folks, the “Man-genius” needs a run game to survive. Jerome Harrison likely got snatched up on the waiver wire earlier this week, and with good cause. The Browns are making progress, and so has Harrison. He’s been getting a lot of touches, and I really don’t mind him against a brutal Buffalo D.

Wide Receivers:

– Derrick Mason – Baltimore Ravens

I hate Willis McGahee, and I’m not huge on Todd Heap. What does this have to do with Mason? Well, in the passing game, he’s the only other target that Flacco has hooked up with for a score more than once. He’s always been a mid-to-late-rounder in drafts, but I really like him this week as a No 1.

– T.J. Houshmandzadeh – Seattle Seahawks

We all know how good T.J. was with Cincinnati.

YOU SAY HOUSHMANDZADEH, I SAY HOUSHMANDZADAH

He hasn’t lived up to the billing in Seattle yet, but with Hasselbeck likely returning, he could see a lot of targets. As I said before, I’m predicting an offensive battle, not so much a defensive war, so TJ’s owners should finally get a performance worthy of his likely draft position.

– Hines Ward – Pittsburgh Steelers

Santonio Holmes was the Superbowl Star, but Ward has been the best receiver on the team in my opinion. He doesn’t have Holmes’ big play ability, but he always gets a ton of catches and racks up the yards. With Big Ben fresh off of his hosting of Monday Night Raw in Wilkes-Barre, PA on Monday, I think Hines is the one that climbs the turnbuckle at the end of the Steelers/Lions match.

Tight Ends:

– Brent Celek – Philadelphia Eagles

McNabb’s back, and that helps Brent this week. I think you can expect the same kind of offensive output that Kolb put up under center by Donovan this week. Here comes my stretch for Week 5 — I think Vick sees a significant number of plays, and I have a gut feeling that a big one goes to Celek. We’ll see if that pans out, but regardless, Celek should finish with solid fantasy stats.

– John Carlson – Seattle Seahawks

For the same reasons that I picked T.J., I like Carlson in Week 5. Carlson was in the discussion of the so-called “second tier” TE’s in the preseason, and hasn’t yet broken out. While I don’t think you can expect a Jermichael Finley Week 4-esque performance from Carlson, don’t be surprised if he ends up as a top-tier TE in Week 5.

– Marcedes Lewis – Jacksonville Jaguars

If the Seahawks have been paying attention, they’ll likely spend an extra five minutes before Sunday’s game begging Josh Wilson and Ken Lucas to lock down Mike Sims-Walker.

MARCEDES LEWIS: NEITHER GERMAN, NOR A CAR -- DISCUSS

If they succeed in doing that, the middle of the field should be open for Lewis to make some plays. I see him as the No. 2 passing target for Garrard, apologies again to Torry Holt (and GASB’s Jordan Rogowski)…

Defense / Special Teams:

– Buffalo Bills

Against the Browns, I think you can expect a low score and a handful of turnover opportunities. The Browns are getting better, but they’re still not good.

– Miami Dolphins

­Fresh off a beating at the hand of the New Orleans D, Sanchez and the newly acquired Braylon Edwards will be looking to rebound. I think Miami pounces on that ambitiousness and keeps the Jets looking like a defensive team, not a complete one.

– Cleveland Browns

See the comments for Bills D/ST, reverse it, and believe. There will be few points in this game, and I think both sides will have a decent D/ST showing. One difference, I think the Browns are on the upswing, and the Bills are on the decline, sorry Buffalo fans. (Ed: You’re fired, Grimsley.)

Kickers:

These kickers should supply some points for you in Week 5. As always, stream your kickers for good matchups: a good week helps, a bad week kills!

– Dan Carpenter – Miami Dolphins

– Joe Nedney – San Francisco 49ers

– Steven Hauschka – Baltimore Ravens

“Hater-Ade”

Take a big gulp, there’s a lot to go around. These are the guys I hate in Week 5:

– Steve Smith – WR Carolina Panthers

No thanks, Steve. I’ll take the New York variety. This Steve Smith is blessed with a INT-happy, fumble-prone QB who can’t seem to get out of his own way. And against the Redskins, who somehow manage to stay in games through their defense, I’m passing.  Punching teammates is bad-ass, but remaining fantasy relevant is too.

IF KNOCKOUTS WERE TOUCHDOWNS...

– Cedric Benson – RB Cincinnati Bengals

The reluctant love most pundits have given Benson should completely dissipate after Week 5. I think that ride is over. It’s not a big stretch to say that he might struggle against the Ravens D, but I think the gas had been leaking out even before this week. Sell high if you have him, but please don’t start Cedric on Sunday.

– Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson – RBs Buffalo Bills

There are certain cliché terms in sports media. “Addition by subtraction” is one. I think that’s stupid, but I get the argument. Buffalo, on the other hand, has a case of “subtraction by addition”. Marshawn’s return is a big blow to Fred’s fantasy value, as we saw in Week 4. Fred Jackson has shown he’s too good not to get significant touches. Vicious circle, complete. One limits the other. Not good.

“Big Johnson of the Week”

I’m going with Chris Johnson again out of the Johnson clan. There’s way too much to like about a matchup against the Indy run D. Fool me once, shame on you… Don’t fool me twice Chris.

* Check back on Tuesday for the Fantasy Football Follow-Up to see how my picks panned out and a review of the week’s top fantasy performers. Any fantasy-specific questions can be sent to briangrimsley@gmail.com. Best of luck in Week 5!

NFL Week 5 picks and predictions

Already a quarter of the 2009 NFL season in the books; they go by way too fast, don’t they?

One minute you’re pining at the bit for Week 1 to start, the next you’re crying yourself to sleep because your team missed the playoffs and writing hate letters to your organization hoping to persuade them to fire your coach. Mr. Wilson, you can be expecting such a letter from me concerning Mr. Jauron.

I went 8-6 last week, bringing my mark to date to 39-23.

As usual, on with the show…

Cleveland (0-4) @ Buffalo (1-3):

Just four weeks into the season and it’s already come to this. Buffalo, reeling after a piss-poor performance in a 38-10 shellacking by Miami, needs this game to have any semblance of a chance at its first playoff birth since 1999.

The Bills have seemingly hit an offensive wall. Whether it’s coming from the booth, head coach Dick Jauron, or Captain Checkdown Trent Edwards, something needs to be done. Buffalo has too much speed and too many playmakers to be stifled as they have been in consecutive games and it’s probably not long before a Terrell Owens blowup.

Maybe, just maybe, the Browns are what the doctor ordered.

Head Coach Eric Mangini has yet to show that he can motivate his players and ineptitude at the quarterback position has put the Browns’ offense on ice. Shipping top ball-dropper and top playmaker Braylon Edwards to the Jets for a No. 3 will do little to change this.

I’m much less certain about this game than I was heading into the season, but Buffalo, as fleeting as their chances are, still has something to play for. The Browns simply do not.

JORDAN SAYS: Bills 27, Browns 13

———

Dallas (2-2) @ Kansas City (0-4):

Christmas is coming early for they-who-used-to-be-America’s Team.

Kris Kringle is lining up in Chiefs uniforms and his bag is going to be full of fumbles, interceptions, and “what the hell did I take this job for?” looks from Head Coach Todd Haley.

Not that the Cowboys are any sort of an imposing force this year, with the seemingly regressing Tony Romo and a backfield that will be without its most dynamic runner in Felix Jones. The fact is that the ‘Boys won’t have to do a whole lot as KC ranks 29th in overall offense and in overall defense.

Dallas should run a basic offense against the Chiefs so as to limit the turnover problem they’ve been having and the defensive line will get after Cassel enough to stifle their attack. But if this is at all close, Dallas has bigger problems than I think anyone realized going into this season.

JORDAN SAYS: Cowboys 24, Chiefs 6

———

Minnesota (4-0) @ St. Louis (0-4):

It seems that Christmas is also coming early for Brett Favre and the Minnesota Vikings. After out-dueling the rival Packers, Minnesota will travel to St. Louis to take on the one team that has a very, very real chance to equal the Lions’ (de)feat of 0-16.

Just how bad are the once-proud Rams?

• Just 24 points scored to 108 allowed.

• Shutout twice.

• Quarterbacks Marc Bulger and Kyle Boller are averaging 52% completions with only 611 combined yards.

• The defense has recorded just seven sacks and two turnovers.
  

  "I wonder if Faulk is available."

It stands to reason that these numbers won’t improve against Super Bowl hopefuls Minnesota with their dynamic, fast-paced offense and overpowering defense. If DE Jared Allen could record 4.5 sacks, a safety and a forced fumble against the Packers’ offensive line, just imagine the havoc he’ll cause against St. Louis.

Somewhere, Jim Martz is smiling from ear-to-ear knowing he got out of town at just the right time.

JORDAN SAYS: Vikings 30, Rams 0

———

Oakland (1-3) @ New York Giants (4-0):

The stinkers keep on comin’.

This one is a little less set in stone than some of the others, being that Eli Manning’s health is an unknown and Domenik Hixon and Kevin Boss are also questionable. If David Carr has to go, look for a conservative pass game and a lot of reliance on tailbacks Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw.

If Eli does go, this will be more air raid than football game, with leading NFL wideout Steve Smith and Mario Manningham finally looking completely comfortable and quelling any doubts in the wake of Plaxico Burress’ absence.

It doesn’t hurt that Oakland is a mess of a team on offense.

Jamarcus Russell is shooting for the history books in a bad way with his sub-40% completion percentage and Darren McFadden’s injury means Michael Bush and Justin Fargas will have to shoulder the load.

If that doesn’t sound like a recipe for a bay-area disaster, I don’t know what does.

JORDAN SAYS: Giants 31, Raiders 9

———

Tampa Bay (0-4) @ Philadelphia (2-1):

Donovan McNabb will make his return after the Eagles’ bye week and a pair of solid performances from backup Kevin Kolb.

Why, though?

Why risk further injury to your franchise quarterback in a game that’s almost assuredly won just by showing up? Kolb has developed a solid chemistry with the Eagles’ receivers and surely a Tampa Bay team with no pass rush to speak of isn’t a threat to that.

Nor is the feeble Tampa Bay offense a threat to an Eagles team that will throw a wide variety of zone blitz packages in the face of the very green Josh Johnson.

Look for the Eagles to get Vick some involvement en route to a big win at home.

JORDAN SAYS: Eagles 23, Buccaneers 3

———

Pittsburgh (2-2) @ Detroit (1-3):

Ludicrous as it may sound, Detroit is not the team that Pittsburgh wants to play right now.

Yes, there’s something to be said for the Steelers racing to a 28-0 lead against a talented San Diego squad. There’s also something to be said for the final score of that game being 35-28. The Steelers have had trouble closing all year and they can’t give that sort of window to a potentially dangerous Lions offense.

THE JACKET IS COMING

Detroit is 18th in offense and Matthew Stafford is establishing a great chemistry with receiver Calvin Johnson as well as rookie tight end and Oklahoma State product Brandon Pettigrew. Pettigrew is averaging close to 14 yards per catch and his size — 6’5”, 265 lbs — makes him a viable redzone threat.

Pittsburgh will have to control the time of possession, and with its sixth-ranked offense they should be able to do just that. Second-year man Rashard Mendenhall had a breakout game against San Diego and is averaging close to six yards per carry. The ever-steady Roethlisberger is a 73% passer with over 11 yards and five touchdowns.

So yes, this offense can move the ball, but last year’s No. 1-ranked defense now sits at No. 13. Troy Polamalu needs to get back and quickly or games like this could slip away from the defending champs.

Still, I like Pittsburgh here.

JORDAN SAYS: Steelers 23, Lions 19

———

Washington (2-2) @ Carolina (0-3):

I don’t care. You don’t care. Nobody cares.

JORDAN SAYS: Panthers 20, Redskins 10

———

Cincinnati (3-1)  @ Baltimore (3-1):

If you thought a game between the Bengals and Ravens would have AFC North title ramifications for both teams, I’ve got some parcels of land for you in Dubai.

Jokes aside, that’s the case. Both teams are a last-second play away from 4-0 and both teams are winning in ways that maybe were not expected coming into the season. The Ravens are winning with offense, and the Bengals are winning with defense.

MONSTER OVER THE MIDDLE

Former USC standout Keith Rivers is every bit the linebacker the Bengals thought he would be and Antwan Odom is tied for the league lead in sacks with eight.

On the other side of the ball, the maturation of Joe Flacco continues as he’s thrown for over 1,000 yards and eight touchdowns and the one-two receiving punch of Derrick Mason and Kelley Washington have combined for close to 500 yards receiving and three touchdowns.

And that’s not to discount the slash-and-burn running of Ray Rice or the apparent revitalization of Willis McGahee who leads the NFL with seven all-purpose touchdowns (five run, two receiving).

This could be just the statement game that Cincinnati needs to erase any doubts about whether or not they’re for real.

JORDAN SAYS: Bengals 24, Ravens 23

———

Atlanta (2-1) @ San Francisco (3-1):

This very well could be the game of the week.

San Francisco has been the league’s best story so far this season and Atlanta will be looking to get back in the game after a loss to New England that it would love to have back.

The 49ers are doing it with defense. They’re doing it with rushing. They’re doing it by not turning the ball over. San Francisco is tied for second best in the league with a +5 turnover differential and that’s due in large part to Shaun Hill establishing himself as a quarterback that can be trusted. Hill is completing 62% of his passes and has five touchdown tosses to just one interception.

Vernon Davis, Isaac Bruce and Josh Morgan are a nice, albeit not flashy trio that gives Hill speed and size to aim for.

Second-year signal-caller Matt Ryan has similar options in Atlanta with veteran Tony Gonzalez as well as the speedy Roddy White and the 6’4″ Michael Jenkins. Where these teams differ most on offense is running back, because Michael Turner has yet to get going for the Falcons, averaging less than four yards per carry.

Last year’s best success story (nobody likes the Dolphins, lets be honest) moves to 2-2 in a close loss.

JORDAN SAYS: 49ers 20, Falcons 17

———

Jacksonville (2-2) @ Seattle (1-3):

Can somebody, anybody, for the love of god please figure out the Jacksonville Jaguars and explain them to me.

Here’s a team that lost a close game to the 4-0 Colts before being lambasted by the listless Cardinals, only to rebound by edging a high-powered Texans team and doing some lambasting of their own against Tennessee.

THREE NAMES, MORE TOUCHDOWNS

I just don’t know what to make of them.

David Garrard is as solid a pocket passer as exists in the AFC and Maurice Jones-Drew is a bruising runner that wears down defenses, but on paper the team still has no legitimate receivers.

On paper.

GASB’s own Brian Grimsley pointed out last week that Mike Sims-Walker was a receiver to watch and his 100+-yard, two-touchdown performance last week certainly affirmed that. But it’s not just Sims-Walker — Torry Holt is proving he can still play by hauling in 15 balls for 211 yards and tight end Marcades Lewis is a threat in his own right with 179 yards receiving and a pair of touchdowns.

The Seahawks, much like their NFC West brethren, are in a state of disarray. Matt Hasslebeck will return from his yearly injury to play on Sunday and the lack of a run game has pushed them to a pass-first offense. While that won’t fly against many teams, Jacksonville is dead last in pass defense so Nate Burleson and T.J. Houshamasomething will get their looks.

Crapshoot of the week.

JORDAN SAYS: Seahawks 33, Jaguars 24

———

Houston (2-2) @ Arizona (1-2):

The two best wide receivers in the game will be on display in Arizona on Sunday.

Houston’s Andre Johnson and Arizona’s Larry Fitzgerald have the size, speed and hands to run roughshod over the opposing team, and with two suspect defenses there’s a good chance at just that happening.

For Arizona, it’s not just Fitzgerald — Steve Breaston, Anquan Boldin and Tim Hightower each have over 170 yards receiving in just three games. And the passing game needs to be humming, because neither Beanie Wells nor Tim Hightower have shown any sort of ability to run between the tackles and they combine for four fumbles versus just one touchdown.

Unlike the Cardinals, the Texans have a grip on balance. In addition to Johnson, tight end Owen Daniels and wideout Kevin Walter they can run the ball with Steve Slaton. He’s struggled to get going so far this season, and the seventh-ranked Arizona run defense won’t give him much leeway, but he’s a much better option than either Wells or Hightower.

I still like Arizona here, because of playmakers on defense. Linebacker Gerald Hayes is quick to shoot the gaps in the run game and Adrian Wilson’s propensity for hard hits over the middle could force some turnovers.

JORDAN SAYS: Cardinals 28, Texans 17

———

New England (3-1) @ Denver (4-0):

I said it before and I’m saying it again this week — I still don’t buy the Broncos.

That’s not to say they can’t prove me wrong, that’s what games like this are for, but I just can’t take this defense at face value when its two best defensive performances were against the Browns and the Raiders. Defensive coordinator Mike Nolan has clearly changed the culture out there, and bringing in players like Brian Dawkins was a brilliant move, but lets see what they do against a Patriots team that has found its legs after back-to-back victories over the Falcons and Ravens.

"Bla.., wait, Patriots power!"

Tom Brady is looking more and more comfortable in each game and with Wes Welker getting back into the swing of things look for them to get even stronger. The loss of Fred Taylor will be noticed, but the Patriots’ running-back-by-committee approach never leaned all that much on him to begin with.

The most interesting aspect of this game is how Kyle Orton and Co. will move the ball against a New England defense that’s coming together.

Remember, the Broncos’ only defensively solid opponent thus far was the Bengals and it took a last-second miracle play to get into the double-digits against them.

The Patriots are in the top 11 in pass yards per game allowed and rush yards per game allowed, so Kyle Orton will need to be judicious with the football and let Correll Buckhalter and Knowshon Moreno get the tough yards on the ground.

When in doubt, don’t bet against New England.

JORDAN SAYS: Patriots 17, Broncos 9

———

Indianapolis (4-0) @ Tennessee (0-4):

Two weeks ago I wrote what probably seemed ridiculous at the time; Peyton Manning, over 10 years into his career, is actually underrated.

Not so ridiculous now, is it?

Manning, for the first time in his illustrious career, has thrown back-to-back-to-back-to-back 300-yard games. He’s done it without Marvin Harrison. He’s done it without Anthony Gonzalez. He’s done it the fourth-worst run game in the league when teams KNOW Manning will be passing.

What we’re witnessing is flat-out incredible. It’s the pinnacle of quarterbacking. It’s every complimentary superlative you can dream up and it’s got to have the 31st-ranked Titans secondary terrified.

The Colts secondary will have no such nightmares on Saturday night because this is not the Titans offense of 2008. Chris Johnson and Kenny Britt have been the two bright spots in a bleak offensive picture but it won’t be nearly enough to keep up with the Colts’ offense.

JORDAN SAYS: Colts 35, Titans 10

———

New York Jets (3-1) @ Miami (1-3):

So Mark Sanchez is human, after all?

It sure looked like it last week when the rookie quarterback committed five turnovers against a surprisingly staunch New Orleans defense.

Sanchez and the newly acquired Braylon Edwards will not be quite so bottled up against a Dolphins defense surrendering 238.5 yards per game through the air, especially if Leon Washington and Thomas Jones — 400 combined yards and three touchdowns — can establish the run game and open up the play-action.

The play-action will also get Jets tight end Dustin Keller into the game with some bootleg passes to the flat.

Miami’s Chad Henne was decent but pedestrian in his debut against a Buffalo defense that was on the field far too long, but a Rex Ryan defense will present challenges unlike anything the former Michigan QB has ever seen in his life.

The Jets should be tied with the Patriots at the end of the day atop the AFC East.

JORDAN SAYS: Jets 24, Dolphins 12

———

BYE: Chicago, Green Bay, New Orleans, San Diego.