NFL Week 8 picks and predictions

Almost halfway there.

The NFL season is still flying by — unless you root for a team from Tennessee, Tampa Bay, Cleveland, Oakland or St. Louis — and there’s some marquee games this weekend that should further help separate the contenders from the pretenders.

There’s also going to a be a few new starting quarterbacks this week. Vince Young was named the starter over Kerry Collins at the behest of Titans owner Buddy Ryan, Alex Smith was named the 49ers’ starter after a three-touchdown performance in a close loss to the Houston Texans, and there’s talk of rookie Josh Freeman getting the nod in Tampa.

It’s sure to be a week full of Dan Deirdorf telling fans “____, well he’s a football player”, Jake Delhomme interceptions and Rex Ryan running off at the mouth.

I took a bit of a hit last week in going 8-5, but I’m holding strong at 68-35.

On with the show…

Houston (4-3) @ Buffalo (3-4):

Both of these teams were absolutely dead in the water two weeks ago, but back-to-back wins have pulled the Bills and Texans back into their respective division races.

The Bills have done it with defense, the Texans with offense.

WE FLY HIGH, NO LIE, YOU KNOW THIS

And while nobody is surprised that a healthy Matt Schaub is shredding defenses thanks to the one-two punch of Andre Johnson (questionable for Sunday’s tilt) and Owen Daniels, the way the Bills are doing things is nothing short of shocking. The injury-depleted Buffalo defense leads the league in takeaways thanks in large part to rookie Jairius Byrd, whose five interceptions — all in the past three games — is good for second in the league behind New Orleans’ Darren Sharper.

The tenth-ranked Bills pass defense will have a much better chance of slowing the Texans’ air assault if Andre Johnson can’t play, especially since the fumble-prone Steve Slaton has yet to eclipse the 75-yard mark in a single game.

If Ryan Fitzpatrick can limit mistakes as he’s done in his past five starts, all of which were wins, Buffalo will pull to .500 at home.

JORDAN SAYS: Bills 23, Texans 20

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Cleveland (1-6) @ Chicago (3-3):

The Chicago Bears were absolutely decimated by the Cincinnati Bengals last week. The Cleveland Browns get absolutely decimated by every single time they play.

I think you see where this is going.

It comes down to the quarterbacks; on one hand you have Jay Cutler, a Pro Bowl quarterback with a million-dollar arm. On the other hand you have Derek Anderson a quarterback that would struggle to make most college rosters right now. For all that’s made of Jamarcus Russell being an awful quarterback, which he is, Anderson’s historically bad season seems to be flying under the radar.

Anderson is completing less than 44 percent of his passes, has seven interceptions compared to two touchdowns and is throwing for less than five yards per completion. This is what Eric Mangini gave up on Brady Quinn just three games into the season for?

Chicago is desperate for a win to stay in the NFC North race as it is, so the gift of playing the Browns will not be lost on them.

JORDAN SAYS: Bears 33, Browns 6

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Seattle (2-4) @ Dallas (4-2):

I don’t know if 2012 is coming early or what, but Tony Romo has had back-to-back outstanding performances. He’s thrown for over 650 yards and kept his completion percentage above 65 percent while finding Miles Austin (who?) to the tune of 421 yards. Yikes.

HADOUKEN!

Whether it’s out of necessity — Dallas hasn’t had a 100-yard rusher since Week 2 — or because of favorable offensive matchups, the Cowboys have been able to move the ball effortlessly through the air. Seattle has a middle-of-the-road pass defense, so Romo may find success.

Matt Hasselbeck just may, too.

While Romo was lighting up the league, Hasselbeck looked skittish against a bad Cardinals pass defense. He’s got weapons in Nate Burleson and T.J. Houshmandzedah, but a suspect offensive line isn’t protecting his blind side — he’s been sacked seven times in just three games.

What’s going against Dallas the most is this being a classic trap game. Dallas won big over Atlanta last week, and plays at division rival Philadelphia on Sunday Night Football next week so Seattle very well may not get their full attention.

JORDAN SAYS: Seahawks 24, Cowboys 21

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St. Louis (0-7) @ Detroit (1-5):

Let’s hear it for GASB’s “This sucks, are there any Law & Order reruns on?” game of the week!

JORDAN SAYS: Lions 27, Rams 9

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Denver (6-0) @ Baltimore (3-3):

Baltimore is much better than its 3-3 record reflects and Denver is every bit as good as its 6-0 record reflects.

These teams are polar opposites of where they were a year ago; Denver was a defensively inept offensive juggernaut and Baltimore had a stifling defense with a game-managing offense. No more. Denver is riding its top-ranked defense and Baltimore its tenth-ranked offense.

PICK-SIXES SOLD SEPERATELY

Something has to give.

And I think it’ll be Denver’s defense. Mike Nolan’s unit is playing fantastic football behind Brian Dawkins and Elvis Dumervil, but Joe Flacco and Co. have had two weeks rest and they’ll be airing it out. Look for the Broncos’ Champ Bailey on the Ravens’ Derrick Mason, as that matchup will determine how effective Flacco will be with the play-action and how much of an impact Ray Rice will be able to have on the ground.

If Baltimore does get out early, forcing Denver to abandon the run game, it could force Kyle Orton into some uncharacteristic mistakes. Ed Reed is always watching.

JORDAN SAYS: Ravens 17, Broncos 16

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San Francisco (3-3) @ Indianapolis (6-0):

Peyton Manning did not even throw for even 250 yards last week.

The Colts still won 42-6.

Now, make no mistake — the 49ers are not the Rams. Not by any stretch. But the Colts claim the No. 1 passing offense in football and San Francisco’s three losses came against Brett Favre, Matt Schaub and Matt Ryan. That doesn’t bode well. Nate Clements will be assigned to Reggie Wayne, but Shawntae Spencer is going to have problems trying to collar Pierre Garcon and Patrick Willis, omnipresent as he is, won’t keep Dallas Clark from catching balls across the middle.

So the Colts are going to score their points, which puts the onus on new starter Alex Smith to find rookie Michael Crabtree and last week’s favorite target, Vernon Davis.

Easier said than done.

The traditionally offensive-minded Colts are allowing a scant 12.8 yards per game and are sixth in the league in passing defense. San Fran’s best shot will be playing ball-control offense and running between the tackles with Frank Gore, but with Bob Sanders back for Indy that’s not an easy task either.

JORDAN SAYS: Colts 30, 49ers 17

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Miami (2-4) @ New York Jets (4-3):

New York Jets linebacker Calvin Pace had some choice words about the Wildcat formation after the Jets’ 31-27 loss to Miami in Week 5:

“I can’t respect that stuff, all that Wildcat. We’re in the NFL — don’t come with that nonsense.”

That kind of whining very well may be heard again in the Meadowlands because the Jets will be without the house of a nose tackle otherwise known as Kris Jenkins for the rest of the season. Without the anchor of their 3-4 defense, the Jets will be hard-pressed to get the quick pressure up the middle needed to stop Wildcat plays.

While the Dolphins will try to move the ball on the ground, New York will try to move it in the air.

Oscar Meyer rebounded nicely from two straight disastrous games with a solid performance against the lowly Raiders, and he’ll look to do more of the same against a Dolphins secondary that will feature two rookie cornerbacks.

It should be another tight game, but a Jenkins-less Jets defense is going to have a lot more problems against the Miami run game than the Miami secondary will have against New York’s passing game, especially with Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene having to shoulder the rest of Leon Washington’s load.

JORDAN SAYS: Dolphins 27, Jets 20

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New York Giants (5-2) @ Philadelphia (4-2):

In a game that very well may be for the outright division lead, both teams will need great quarterback play in leiu of top-15 run defenses from both teams.

Which, when talking about Eli Manning and Donovan McNabb sounds like it shouldn’t be an issue, right?

"MICHAEL VICK? NOPE, NEVER HEARD OF HIM."

But McNabb has just one touchdown and roughly 400 yards in his past two games and Manning has about the same amount of yards but four interceptions to just one touchdown. McNabb’s struggles can be attributed largely to a leaky offensive line and a lack of a run game, but Eli has no such blame to place. He’s making bad reads, throwing behind receivers and putting too much air under the ball.

All correctable issues, for sure, but the hostile environment in Philadelphia is not the best place for that to happen.

Still, I think Eli can get enough balls to Steve Smith and Mario Manningham, and Kevin Boss can exploit a surprisingly weak linebackers corps as long as New York’s offensive line can keep Trent Cole from putting Manning on the ground.

JORDAN SAYS: Giants 30, Eagles 21

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Jacksonville (3-3) @ Tennessee (0-6):

The Vince Young era has (re) begun.

Jeff Fisher and the Nashville faithful are hoping for a better go-round than they got in Young’s lackluster 2007 season but the deck is surely stacked against him. Expect the Titans to get Chris Johnson going early against a Jaguars run defense allowing just shy of 100 yards per game so that Young can ease into the game not doing too much.

If that doesn’t work, it’s going to be a long, long day because Kenny Britt is Tennessee’s only receiving threat and even the 31st-ranked pass defense in football is capable of making big plays against a relatively inexperienced quarterback.

Speaking of pass defense… does Tennessee have one? There may as well be cardboard cutouts in the secondary because the gaudy 310 yards per game the Titans are giving up is music to the ears of David Garrard and his 1,464 yards.

How far the Titans have fallen.

JORDAN SAYS: Jaguars 26, Titans 12

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Oakland (2-5) @ San Diego (3-3):

The last time we saw these two teams play one another, Louis Murphy had a touchdown catch incorrectly ruled as an incomplete pass and the Chargers escaped Oakland with a 24-20 win.

Don’t expect such a close finish this time around.

MOMENTS BEFORE THE BALL SAILED THROUGH THE UPRIGHTS

Philip Rivers is dialed-in as of late and even with a non-existent running game, he’s able to move the ball with the help of Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates. But with Chris Johnson having a breakout year at cornerback, he’ll be matched up on Vincent Jackson and Rivers will work in plenty of bubble screens to the ever-shifty Darren Sproles.

The Raiders are, well, the Raiders.

It doesn’t matter if its Jamarcus Russell, Bruce Gradkowski or Jeff Hostetler throwing the ball, the offense is stagnant and, save Louis Murphy, devoid of playmakers.

JORDAN SAYS: Chargers 31, Raiders 13

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Carolina (2-4) @ Arizona (4-2):

Speaking of awful quarterbacks.

Jake Delhomme and the rest of the Carolina “Delhomme to a five year extension? Really? Really?” Panthers are en route to Arizona to battle the 4-2-out-of-nowhere Cardinals and its not a good matchup for them. At all.

Looking at the Cardinals’ schedule, their only two losses were a four-point, season-opening loss to the 49ers and a loss to Super Bowl-hopeful Indianapolis. Not a bad resume.

Kurt Warner is rolling quietly along, completing 66 percent of his passes but the 4-3 Carolina defense may present some problems. They’re the top-ranked outfit in the NFL against the pass and have conceded less than 900 yards in six games thanks to constant pressure from Julius Peppers and Damione Lewis and lockdown coverage by Chris Gamble and Richard Marshall.

What they lack in name recognition they make up for in speed and tackling ability and while they don’t get many takeaways, they keep the big plays from happening.

The same can be said of the top-ranked Cardinals run defense. This suffocating unit is allowing just 67.5 yards per game — bad news for D’Angelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, who had enough trouble penetrating the Buffalo Bills’ defensive line, let alone the Cardinals defense.

Plain and simple — Kurt Warner stands a much better chance of beating the Panthers defense than Williams and Stewart do of beating the Cardinals’.

JORDAN SAYS: Cardinals 19, Panthers 10

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Minnesota (6-1) @ Green Bay (4-2):

For some reason the sports media isn’t really paying much attention to it, but Brett Favre is playing at Lambeau Field this week and he’s not doing it in a Packers uniform.

Now that that’s out of the way let’s be clear — records aside, these two teams are very, very close. In their first meeting this season, the Vikings eked out a 23-20 win at home despite sacking Aaron Rodgers 37 times. With the Packers line healthier this time around and with the game being in Green Bay, the tables tilt in the home team’s favor.

Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre are both playing at an exceedingly high level and both have a plethora of weapons, so this game will be won on the defensive side of the ball.

Advantage: Green Bay.

JARED ALLEN AND A BEAR... WAIT, SINCE WHEN DO BEARS WEAR HATS?

The switch from the 4-3 to the 3-4 has been a rousing success; the Pack have allowed the second-fewest yards in the NFL and are fifth in points per game allowed. Nick Barnett and Aaron Kampman have been absolute terrors, breaking up passes, sacking the quarterback and tackling anyone in a three-football field radius.

Adrian Peterson — who only has two 100-yard games this season — won’t be able to take the corner with those four linebackers buzzing around the field and the Pack win as a result.

JORDAN SAYS: Packers 24, Vikings 16

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Atlanta (4-2) @ New Orleans (6-0):

New Orleans has spent the first seven weeks tearing through the rest of the NFL while barely breaking a sweat, and now it plays its first divisional contest of the season.

Don’t expect them to break the sweatbands out now.

The Saints have won every kind of game. They’ve won shootouts, they’ve won defensive battles, and they’ve won a game where they trailed by three scores on the road. This is the kind of battle-tested squad that goes deep into the playoffs, and that’s the kind of squad that rips apart the 26th-ranked pass defense in football.

To their credit, the Falcons have markedly improved on defense and are only allowing 19 points per game, but they haven’t faced the Drew Brees Demolition Squad. They haven’t had to corral a player like Reggie Bush and Matt Ryan hasn’t had to contend with a ball hawk like Darren Sharper.

I’m not ruling out the possibility of Atlanta keeping this competitive, but I am ruling out the possibility of them leaving the Superdome with a win.

JORDAN SAYS: Saints 38, Falcons 20

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BYE: Cincinnati, Kansas City, New England, Washington, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay

- Jordan Rogowski

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